Table 3: One-way sensitivity analyses, PIAAF-Pharmacy screening versus no screening (base case: incremental cost per QALY gained = $1175)

Variable	Incremental cost, $	Incremental no. of QALYs	Incremental cost/QALY gained, $
Cost of screening, $ (base case = $65)
100	60	0.0035	17 195
90	50	0.0035	14 325
80	40	0.0035	11 455
70	30	0.0035	8585
60	20	0.0035	5715
50	10	0.0035	2845
40	-0	0.0035	Dominates
30	-10	0.0035	Dominates
% of people with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation who receive oral anticoagulant therapy (base case = 0.71)
1.0	10	0.0049	2056
0.9	16	0.0044	3562
0.8	21	0.0039	5446
0.7	27	0.0034	7867
0.6	32	0.0029	11 096
0.5	38	0.0024	15 616
0.4	44	0.0020	22 397
0.3	49	0.0015	33 697
0.2	55	0.0010	56 298
0.1	61	0.0005	124 101
Positive predictive value of single-lead electrocardiography (base case = 0.654)
1.0	5	0.0053	911
0.9	11	0.0048	2291
0.8	17	0.0043	4015
0.7	23	0.0037	6232
0.6	29	0.0032	9189
0.5	36	0.0027	13 327
0.4	42	0.0021	19 535
0.3	48	0.0016	29 882
0.2	54	0.0011	50 575
0.1	60	0.0005	112 656
% of people with undiagnosed atrial fibrillation in whom the disorder is diagnosed each year (base case = 0.03)
0	20	0.0040	4951
0.05	30	0.0032	9215
0.1	36	0.0027	13 724
0.2	45	0.0019	23 499
0.3	50	0.0015	34 355
0.4	53	0.0011	46 475
0.5	56	0.0009	60 186
Time horizon, yr (base case = lifetime)
5	36	0.0010	37 226
10	25	0.0023	10 657
15	25	0.0031	7800
20	26	0.0034	7490
25	26	0.0035	7480
Annual rate of discontinuation of oral anticoagulant therapy (base case = 10%)
0	1	0.005	232
0.1	26	0.003	7480
0.2	38	0.002	15 480
0.3	45	0.002	24 333
0.4	50	0.001	34 208
0.5	53	0.001	45 382
Alternative stroke costs	46	0.003	13 277
Warfarin represents 100% of orally administered anticoagulants*	17	0.003	5985
Direct oral anticoagulant therapy represents 100% of orally administered anticoagulants†	36	0.004	8611

Note: PIAAF-Pharmacy = Program for the Identification of 'Actionable' Atrial Fibrillation in the Pharmacy Setting, QALY = quality-adjusted life-year.

*Base case: 52%.

†Base case: 48%.