Prevalent number of baseline* inpatients and inpatients with COVID-19 in non-ICU and ICU beds in 2 acute care hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area by May 6, 2020
| Variable | Scenario-based projections | Observed§ | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Among selected scenarios† | Across 153 constrained epidemics‡ | ||||||
| Fast or large | Default | Slow or small | Median | Lower quartile | Upper quartile | ||
| SMH non-ICU inpatient beds, n (capacity = 405; non-COVID-19 patients = 399*) | |||||||
| Daily prevalent number of non-ICU COVID-19–related inpatients, n | 989 | 156 | 5 | 43 | 9 | 211 | 19 |
| Extra absolute number of non-ICU beds needed, n | 983 | 150 | 0 | 37 | 3 | 205 | NA |
| Projected reduction in non-COVID-19, non-ICU inpatients required to remain below bed capacity, and observed reduction§, % | NA | 38 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 51 | 27 |
| SMH ICU inpatient beds (capacity = 71; non-COVID-19 patients = 56*) | |||||||
| Daily prevalent number of ICU COVID-19–related inpatients, n | 493 | 55 | 7 | 25 | 5 | 129 | 10 |
| Extra absolute number of ICU beds needed, n | 478 | 40 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 114 | NA |
| Projected reduction in non-COVID-19, ICU inpatients required to remain below bed capacity, and observed reduction§, % | NA | 71 | 0 | 18 | 0 | NA | 38 |
| SJHC non-ICU inpatient beds (capacity = 407; non-COVID-19 patients = 374*) | |||||||
| Daily prevalent number of non-ICU COVID-19–related inpatients, n | 865 | 137 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 185 | 39 |
| Extra absolute number of non-ICU beds needed, n | 832 | 104 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 152 | NA |
| Projected reduction in non-COVID-19, non-ICU inpatients required to remain below bed capacity, and observed reduction§, % | NA | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 20 |
| SJHC ICU inpatient beds (capacity = 32; non-COVID-19 patients = 18*) | |||||||
| Daily prevalent number of ICU COVID-19–related inpatients, n | 130 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 7 |
| Extra absolute number of ICU beds needed, n | 116 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | NA |
| Projected reduction in non-COVID-19, ICU inpatients required to remain below bed capacity, and observed reduction§, % | NA | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NA | 50 |
Note: COVID-19 = coronavirus disease 2019, ICU = intensive care unit, NA = not applicable when number of COVID-19–related patients exceeded the hospital capacity, SJHC = St. Joseph Health Centre, SMH = St. Michael’s Hospital.
↵* The baseline number of non-COVID-19 patients was estimated using the median daily number of inpatients on May 30 between 2014 and 2019 in each hospital.
↵† The fast or large epidemic and slow or small epidemic were selected as the upper and lower quartiles of peak incidence, respectively, within the first 300 days from Feb. 23, 2020. The default scenario reflected the default parameter set as shown in Table 1.
↵‡ Among 200 simulated epidemics, 153 met the constraints using the observed data for Lombardy, Italy, and Hong Kong, China, to constrain the simulated epidemics.
↵§ Observed reduction is based on the actual change in inpatient census between the median (generated from pre-COVID-19 years 2014–2019) and observed cases by May 6, 2020.