Model results for variables with significant differences before and after state of emergency declaration (OR, 95% CI)*
| Variable | Pre-break slope | Post-break slope | Level change | Level change p value | Slope change p value | Absolute expected difference % (95% CI)† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physical health diagnosis | 1.002 (0.999 to 1.004) | 0.972 (0.954 to 0.991) | 1.33 (1.19 to 1.49) | < 0.001 | 0.002 | 6.6 (4.0 to 9.2) |
| Has quit date | 1.000 (0.997 to 1.002) | 1.003 (0.985 to 1.021) | 0.80 (0.72 to 0.88) | < 0.001 | 0.7 | −4.8 (−7.0 to −2.6) |
| Not working | 1.000 (0.997 to 1.003) | 0.946 (0.925 to 0.967) | 1.83 (1.60 to 2.09) | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | 12.4 (9.8 to 15.0) |
| Smoking status‡ | 0.988 (0.984 to 0.993) | 0.937 (0.904 to 0.972) | 1.56 (1.27 to 1.91) | < 0.001 | 0.004 | |
| Occasional smoker | 1.3 (0.6 to 1.9) | |||||
| Current nonsmoker | 1.7 (0.8 to 2.6) | |||||
| Mental health diagnosis | 1.001 (0.998 to 1.003) | 0.998 (0.977 to 1.019) | 1.23 (1.09 to 1.39) | 0.001 | 0.8 | 4.6 (1.9 to 7.2) |
| Substance use diagnosis§ | 1.003 (0.999 to 1.006) | 0.972 (0.949 to 0.997) | 1.27 (1.10 to 1.47) | 0.001 | 0.02 | 3.5 (1.3 to 5.6) |
| Specific diagnoses | ||||||
| COPD | 1.001 (0.998 to 1.004) | 0.969 (0.95 to 0.989) | 1.38 (1.23 to 1.56) | < 0.001 | 0.002 | 6.2 (3.9 to 8.5) |
| Anxiety | 1.002 (0.999 to 1.004) | 0.992 (0.974 to 1.01) | 1.20 (1.07 to 1.33) | 0.001 | 0.3 | 4.1 (1.7 to 6.6) |
| Diabetes | 1.000 (0.997 to 1.004) | 0.978 (0.955 to 1.002) | 1.19 (1.03 to 1.37) | 0.02 | 0.07 | 2.2 (0.3 to 4.2) |
| Cancer | 1.004 (0.999 to 1.008) | 0.970 (0.941 to 0.999) | 1.26 (1.06 to 1.51) | 0.01 | 0.03 | 1.9 (0.3 to 3.5) |
| Bipolar disorder | 0.998 (0.993 to 1.002) | 0.991 (0.959 to 1.023) | 1.25 (1.03 to 1.51) | 0.02 | 0.7 | 1.6 (0.1 to 3.1) |
| Drug use disorder¶ | 1.002 (0.999 to 1.006) | 0.961 (0.934 to 0.989) | 1.21 (1.02 to 1.43) | 0.02 | 0.004 | 2.2 (0.2 to 4.2) |
| Heart disease | 1.002 (0.999 to 1.006) | 0.995 (0.97 to 1.021) | 1.17 (1.00 to 1.36) | 0.04 | 0.6 | 1.7 (0.0 to 3.4) |
Note: CI = confidence interval, COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, OR = odds ratio.
↵* Fixed effects from mixed-effects logistic models. Slope values show change per 30-day interval. Slope change p values are from post-estimation tests of differences in slopes before and after the state of emergency declaration. Specific diagnoses are included in the broader diagnosis categories, and are shown for all conditions with p < 0.05. For other variables, Holm adjustment for multiplicity was applied.
↵† Difference between predicted probabilities immediately before and after the state of emergency declaration.
↵‡ Baseline smoking status: daily smoker, occasional smoker, nonsmoker. As an ordinal outcome, expected differences are shown for the occasional and nonsmoker categories.
↵§ Alcohol or non-tobacco drug use disorder.
↵¶ Non-tobacco, non-alcohol drug use disorder.