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Hidden Homicide Increases in the USA, 1999–2005

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Abstract

Prior to 1999, dramatic fluctuations in homicide rates were driven by changes in the rates of firearm homicide among men aged 15–24. Since 2000, the overall homicide rate has appeared stable, masking any changes in population subgroups. We analyzed recent trends in homicide rates by weapon, age, race, gender, state, and urbanization to determine whether the risk of victimization increased substantially during 1999–2005 for demographic subgroups. The analysis of WISQARS™ data and Wonder data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revealed no trend in the homicide rate nationally between 1999 and 2005; this obscured large increases in firearm homicide rates among black men aged 25–44 and among white men aged 25–34. Between 1999 and 2005, for ages 25–44 combined, the increase for black men was 31% compared with 12% for white men. Significant increases among men aged 25–44 occurred in Alabama, California, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington. The firearm homicide rate increased the most in large central metropolitan areas (+32%) and large fringe metropolitan areas (+30%) for men aged 25–44. We conclude that the recent, unrecognized increases in firearm homicide among men aged 25–44, especially black men, in large metropolitan areas merit the attention of policymakers.

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Acknowledgment

This research was supported by the National Center for Injury Research and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Grant CCR302486), through a grant to the Johns Hopkins Center for Injury Research and Policy.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Central South University, 110 Xiangya Road, Changsha, Hunan, China, 410078

    Guoqing Hu

  2. Center for Injury Research and Policy, Department of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 624 North Broadway, Baltimore, Maryland, 21205, USA

    Guoqing Hu & Susan P. Baker

  3. Center for the Prevention of Youth Violence and Center for Gun Policy and Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 624 North Broadway, Baltimore, Maryland, 21205, USA

    Daniel Webster

Authors
  1. Guoqing Hu
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  2. Daniel Webster
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  3. Susan P. Baker
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Correspondence to Susan P. Baker.

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Hu, G., Webster, D. & Baker, S.P. Hidden Homicide Increases in the USA, 1999–2005. J Urban Health 85, 597–606 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-008-9287-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-008-9287-6

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