Table 2: Hazard and odds ratios for clinically important events used in the model

Parameter used in model	Value	Low range of sensitivity analyses	High range of sensitivity analyses	Distribution used in probabilistic analysis	Reference nos.
HR for death, by no. of years after ACS
< 5	4.39	1.11	17.39	Log-normal	20
5-10	3.1	0.93	10.33	Log-normal	20
10-15	2.25	0.81	6.23	Log-normal	20
15-20	2.17	0.80	5.88	Log-normal	20
20-25	2.07	0.79	5.43	Log-normal	20
25-30	1	NA	NA	NA	Assumption
HR for death in the presence of heart failure relative to its absence	8.22	7.49	9.01	Log-normal	21
HR for death with clopidogrel relative to single antiplatelet	0.93 for 12 mo	0.79	1.08	Log-normal	22
HR for death with prasugrel relative to clopidogrel	0.95	0.78	1.16	Log-normal	4, 5
HR for death with ticagrelor relative to clopidogrel	0.78	0.69	0.90	Log-normal	4, 6
HR for ACS with ASA and clopidogrel relative to ASA alone	0.77 for 12 mo post-ACS	0.67	0.89	Log-normal	22
HR for ACS with prasugrel relative to clopidogrel	0.75	0.66	0.85	Log-normal	4, 5
HR for ACS with ticagrelor relative to clopidogrel	0.84	0.74	0.94	Log-normal	4, 6
OR for stent thrombosis with single antiplatelet relative to clopidogrel	13.70 for 6 mo post-ACS	4.04	46.68	Log-normal	23
OR for stent thrombosis with prasugrel relative to clopidogrel	0.47	0.35	0.63	Log-normal	4, 5
OR for stent thrombosis with ticagrelor relative to clopidogrel	0.74	0.58	0.95	Log-normal	4, 6
OR for major bleeding with single antiplatelet relative to clopidogrel	0.88	0.48	1.64	Log-normal	22
OR for major bleeding with prasugrel relative to clopidogrel	1.46	1.15	1.85	Log-normal	4, 5
HR for major bleeding with ticagrelor relative to clopidogrel	1.09	0.92	1.14	Log-normal	4, 6

Note: ACS = acute coronary syndrome, ASA = acetylsalicylic acid, HR = hazard ratio, NA = not available, OR = odds ratio.