Model-estimated burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in Canada, 2019–2030
| Variable | Year; no. (uncertainty interval)* | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | |
| Population of Canada | 37 280 000 | 37 603 000 | 39 173 000 | 40 618 000 |
| Model-estimated prevalent cases | ||||
| NAFLD | 7 757 000 | 7 930 000 | 8 712 000 | 9 305 000 |
| (7 138 000–8 232 000) | (7 298 000–8 414 000) | (8 012 000–9 244 000) | (8 550 000–9 875 000) | |
| Crude all-ages NAFLD prevalence rate, % | 20.8 (19.1–22.1) | 21.1 (19.4–22.4) | 22.2 (20.5–23.6) | 22.9 (21.1–24.3) |
| Adjusted all-ages NAFLD prevalence rate, %† | 20.8 (19.1–22.1) | 21.0 (19.4–22.3) | 22.0 (20.2–23.4) | 22.3 (20.5–23.7) |
| Stage F0 | 6 436 000 (5 784 000–6 956 000) | 6 553 000 (5 884 000–7 086 000) | 7 060 000 (6 300 000–7 655 000) | 7 400 000 (6 577 000–8 048 000) |
| Stage F1 | 630 000 (425 000–872 000) | 649 000 (437 000–899 000) | 736 000 (496 000–1 022 000) | 807 000 (542 000–1 123 000) |
| Stage F2 | 360 000 (235 000–508 000) | 376 000 (245 000–530 000) | 451 000 (298 000–636 000) | 518 000 (341 000–730 000) |
| Stage F3 | 216 000 (131 000–316 000) | 228 000 (139 000–334 000) | 293 000 (179 000–424 000) | 357 000 (219 000–511 000) |
| Compensated cirrhosis | 101 000 (60 400–167 000) | 108 000 (65 200–179 000) | 150 000 (91 300–242 000) | 195 000 (120 000–309 000) |
| Decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and liver transplantation | 14 000 (8600–21 700) | 15 100 (9300–23 500) | 21 300 (13 300–33 700 | 28 200 (17 700–44 700) |
| NASH | 1 953 000 (1 582 000–2 320 000) | 2 020 000 (1 635 000–2 401 000) | 2 345 000 (1 888 000–2 792 000) | 2 630 000 (2 107 000–3 136 000) |
| Crude all-ages NASH prevalence rate, % | 5.2 (4.2–6.2) | 5.4 (4.3–6.4) | 6.0 (4.8–7.1) | 6.5 (5.2–7.7) |
| Adjusted all-ages NASH prevalence rate, %† | 5.2 (4.2–6.2) | 5.3 (4.3–6.3) | 5.8 (4.7–6.9) | 6.1 (4.9–7.2) |
| Model-estimated incident cases | ||||
| Decompensated cirrhosis | 3400 (1900–5800) | 3700 (2100–6200) | 5100 (2900–8500) | 6700 (3800–10 900) |
| Hepatocellular carcinoma | 660 (440–990) | 710 (470–1100) | 940 (620–1400) | 1200 (770–1800) |
| Liver death | 2700 (1500–4500) | 2900 (1700–4800) | 4200 (2400–6800) | 5600 (3200–9000) |