Five-year (2022–2026) cumulative results on scope and performance of case detection strategies
| Variable | Eligible* (% of target population) | Administered case detection (% of target population) | Referred for outpatient spirometry | Additional diagnoses† (% target population) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| True positives (% of tested) | False positives (% of tested) | ||||
| (S1) All patients | |||||
| S1a: CDQ ≥ 17 | 20 468 000 (92.4) | 8 947 300 (40.4) | 175 400 (2.0) | 4 468 000 (49.9) | 145 700 (0.66) |
| S1b: Flow metre | 85 000 (0.9) | 772 100 (8.6) | 67 700 (0.31) | ||
| S1c: CDQ ≥ 17 + flow metre | 58 100 (0.6) | 412 900 (4.6) | 44 600 (0.20) | ||
| (S2) Symptomatic patients | |||||
| S2a: Flow metre | 18 760 100 (84.7) | 5 792 300 (26.2) | 87 000 (1.5) | 1 161 600 (20.1) | 69 800 (0.32) |
| (S3) Smoking history | |||||
| S3a: CDQ ≥ 19.5 | 8 486 300 (38.3) | 3 705 900 (16.7) | 28 000 (0.8) | 1 382 600 (37.3) | 22 000 (0.10) |
| S3b: CDQ ≥ 16.5 | 87 000 (2.3) | 2 117 800 (57.1) | 76 300 (0.34) | ||
| S3c: Flow metre | 55 100 (1.5) | 748 900 (20.2) | 47 000 (0.21) | ||
| S3d: CDQ ≥ 17 + flow metre | 42 400 (1.1) | 184 600 (5.0) | 35 300 (0.16) | ||
Note: CDQ = COPD Diagnostic Questionnaire, COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Results based on a single run of EPIC per scenario.
↵* Eligible defined as meeting the eligibility criteria and having visited primary care within the same year over the time horizon.
↵† Additional diagnoses compared with routine diagnosis under the baseline scenario of no case detection, after 5 years.